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Paper eres2015_297:
Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts

id eres2015_297
authors Mouzakis, Fotis; Dimitrios Papastamos; Simon Stevenson
year 2015
title Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts
source 22nd Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Istanbul, Turkey
summary This study examines the rationality and momentum in rental and capital value forecasts of commercial real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. The adopted approach employs three dimensional panel data methods, by attributing the time series dimension to the sequential re-issues by a forecaster of a certain target forecast. The empirical method allows a multiplicity of assumptions regarding the covered by the data target time periods, forecast horizons, forecasters or groups of those to be examined with simultaneous use of the overall panel of data, without the need of segmenting the data set. The investigation includes macro-economic attribution factors to the temporary levels of forecast accuracy, such as Gross Domestic Product and the Default Spread. The empirical findings demonstrate that forecasters tend to maintain their biases over subsequent issues of the same target forecast, regardless of the lowering forecasting horizon. The results also indicate that forecasting accuracy is positively correlated with macro-economic conditions at the time of prediction.
keywords Momentum, Forecast Errors, Bias, Property Forecasts
series ERES:conference
type paper session
email f.mouzakis@frynon.com
content file.ppt (1,402,294 bytes)
discussion No discussions. Post discussion ...
ratings
session Market Research, Analysis & Forecasting
last changed 2015/07/08 18:06
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