Eres : Digital Library : Works

Paper eres2012_063:
Predictibility of downturns in housing markets - A complex system

id eres2012_063
authors Maximilian Brauers
year 2012
title Predictibility of downturns in housing markets - A complex system
source 19th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Edinburgh, Scotland
summary This paper applies a complex system approach to predicting downturns in housing markets. We test the Log-Periodic-Power-Law (LPPL) model on 20 years of housing price data over nine regional subsamples within the U.S. We propose a new restriction to the model to remedy estimation issues due to the low frequency of house price data. We find that the restricted LPPL model well describes the times before the downturns. The out of sample predictions of the timing of the downturns lie within a narrow time span. With the restricted model we achieve a high success rate in issuing predications before downturns and not issuing predictions before no downturns.
series ERES:conference
type normal paper
email maximilian.brauers@ebs.edu
content file.pptx (1,553,452 bytes)
discussion No discussions. Post discussion ...
ratings
session Parallel Session D6
last changed 2014/10/21 21:51
HOMELOGIN (you are user _anon_199781 from group guest) Powered by SciX Open Publishing Services 1.002