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Paper eres2010_374:
FORECASTING TENURE DURATIONS FROM SURVEY RESPONSES ON CURRENT SPELLS

id eres2010_374
authors Deutsch, Edwin
year 2010
title FORECASTING TENURE DURATIONS FROM SURVEY RESPONSES ON CURRENT SPELLS
source 17th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Milan, Italy
summary In various survey data, the tenants report the spell from past entry to the current date. Although that gives useful information about the mobility pattern, it does not provide any immediate forecast how long the tenants will stay in the future or eventually remain in probability. Information of that sort would be important for planning processes, but the data signal only the interoccurrence time from which we can estimate the backwards recurrence time, what underestimates the total stay. Inferring about the latter needs strong assumptions on the nature of the underlying stochastic processes, discussed by Feller, Cox, Karlin and Taylor, Bhat and Miller, Prakasa Rao and others. By means of simulations we first illustrate the size of underestimation. Then we use the simulations as a benchmark to estimate and forecast the total spells from Austrian census data.
keywords Census survey data, spells in rentals, stochastic process, backward recurrence time, estimation bias, inspection paradox
series ERES:conference
email edwin.deutsch@tuwien.ac.at
more http://www.eres2010.org/index.asp?page=papers_download
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ratings
session Housing Economics & Urban Economics
last changed 2010/08/04 20:47
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