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Paper eres2010_338:

id eres2010_338
authors Soeter, Jo; De Jong, Peter
year 2010
source 17th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Milan, Italy
summary Measurement (m2) and valuation (euro's) of non-residential property suffer from a lack of integral statistical observation. This limits the applicability in market analysis, (spatial) planning and forecasting of building activity. Aim of this research is to obtain on macro and sectoral level more insight in the available stock of buildings, in the stock in use and in the need and demand for expansion and renewal of the building stock in the coming decade. Fixed Capital Statistics - based on OECD-standards - are concentrated on the historic fixed capital formation (in euro's) and depreciation afterwards, along the life time. This offers limited insight in the actual stock in use and does not provide a base for forecasting future growth and adaptation of the Building Stock. Otherwise - for instance within the context of the Dutch property law - the non-residential property is registered and valuated to. This valuation is for marketable buildings based on the market price, which individually reflects the joint value of land and the building on it. The registration of floor area is on macro level incomplete. In this paper an alternative approach of macro valuation of the stock of buildings will be presented. By combination of the National Accounts 1990-2008 and construction statistics it is possible to split the sectoral capital formation in buildings in an expansion and a renewal component. Additionally cumulated expansion in a certain period is linked to the growth of the sectoral production capacity and if more relevant linked to the growth of the sectoral employment, of the number of users and/or of the accommodation capacity. The final result is a valuation (in euro's) of the Stock of Buildings and measurement of the Stock in Use (m2), with decomposition in 9 sectoral stocks, with their own typological structure in terms of offices, shops, warehouses, glasshouses, schools and so on. This provides an useful base for structural - forecasting of non-residential building activity. The framework for macro and sector analysis is also applicable on regional and corporate level, even to integrate and assess partial and specific registrations by real estate agencies and others. This may ""colour"" what is behind the macro view.
keywords building stock, property, measurement, macro valuation, fixed capital statistics, stock in use
series ERES:conference
content file.pptx (2,579,651 bytes)
discussion No discussions. Post discussion ...
session Macroeconomic Perspectives on the Real Estate Market (2)
last changed 2010/08/04 20:47
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