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Paper eres2010_091:
MODERN CONDITION: MARKET VALUE OR USER VALUE?

id eres2010_091
authors Trifonov, Nikolai
year 2010
title MODERN CONDITION: MARKET VALUE OR USER VALUE?
source 17th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Milan, Italy
summary Methodology of valuation most widespread now is based on the assumption of stability of the market of a valuation subject (a real estate). This assumption has consequence the concept of the market value, in particular, in the definition of International Valuation Standards [1] (which for clients' purposes equates to fair value under IAS 40). This is a conception of a value in exchange, where a willing seller and a willing buyer decide to change a valuation subject for a calculated sum of money on the valuation date on the base of well-done marketing. Some time ago it seems that the approximation of a market value looks strange only for emerging markets [2] with its non-transparency. But last half-decade changes the situation. Thinking on the reasons of poor-quality valuation since times of scandals with Enron company etc. up to modern mortgage crisis many analytics have come to conclusion, that, apparently, the stable markets exist only in imagination, as a model. In the contemporary world prices are not established by what has gone before or even what exists now, but by buyers’ and sellers’ future needs and expectations. Whether for this reason, or on the basis of intuition, more and more valuers' clients (owners, buyers, investors) are interested not in a present condition of the market, but its future. Making a decision they wish to know the future incomes of use of a real estate (valuation subject). Differently, a willing seller and a willing buyer have typically ignored market value, but are interested in value in use. The concept of the value in use is well-known. The value in use is a value of concrete property at concrete use for the concrete user and consequently not connected with the market (e.g. [1]). In book keeping a value in use is the value of calculated future cash flows discounted to a present situation which presumably will arise from continuation of use of an active and from its sale in the end of its term of useful services (see IFRS 5, app. A). Nevertheless often a potential real estate investor is not interested in value in current use, but value in the most profitable use (highest and best use). We shall name this kind of value as the "user value". It can be defined as follows. User value is a current value of the future incomes of valuation subject in highest and best use. Being based on this definition, it is simple to fix an algorithm of calculation of the user value. At the first stage it is necessary to define the highest and best use of a valuation subject. Further, to forecast the incomes of this use, including return of the capital by sale in the end of use. At last, to predict changes of capitalization rate in the market of valuation subject and to discount future incomes to the valuation date. As it shows, in conditions of changing markets the using by the valuer of the user value as the basis of a valuation often meets greater understanding of clients, than calculation of the market value.
keywords appraisal, basis of valuation, changing markets, mortgage crisis, valuation standards, value in use
series ERES:conference
email guild@unibel.by
more http://www.eres2010.org/index.asp?page=papers_download
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ratings
session Real Estate Valuation (1)
last changed 2010/08/04 20:47
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