System Dynamics as a Complementary Methodology for Real Estate Research
||System Dynamics as a Complementary Methodology for Real Estate Research
||16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Stockholm, Sweden
||System dynamics is a quantitative simulation methodology, which is claimed to bring counterintuitive but truthful insights into the dynamic behaviour of complex feedback systems. It is used as a learning platform for both professionals and policy makers and is used to explore robust strategies in order to tackle highly complex prolicy problems. The paper addresses the question whether system dynamics is useful as a complementary methodology for real estate research. First of all, we will present the main concepts and principles of system dynamics and address its usefulness for real estate research. Secondly, a review is provided of the track record of system dynamics in the field of urban development, housing and real estate, including the provocative Urban Dynamics (Forrester, 1969) and its follow up. As a third contribution, an effort will be made to model the ubiquitous real estate markets model of Wheaton and DiPasquale (1996) into the system dynamics paradigm and to test whether this brings plausible results. Finally, we venture into the intricate dynamics of the Dutch housing market and present work in progress how to use both system dynamics and the real estate markets models in order to assess trajectories for the reforms to come.
||file.ppt (543,744 bytes)
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