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Paper eres2009_306:
Mind-Sets Towards Real Estate Risk: A Comparison Between Brazilian and German Institutional Investors

id eres2009_306
authors Santovito, Rogerio; da Rocha Lima Junior, João
year 2009
title Mind-Sets Towards Real Estate Risk: A Comparison Between Brazilian and German Institutional Investors
source 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in Stockholm, Sweden
summary This paper is part of a wider research project, conducted by the Real Estate Research Group, whose main objective is to provide theoretical basis and a methodology for institutional investors to properly evaluate the role of real estate assets in their investment portfolios. It gives some evidence regarding the impact that the recent crisis on global financial markets and, more specifically, the reflexes on real estate markets, might have had on institutional investors and on their investment decision-support systems. The recent evolution of the Brazilian economical scene propitiated the occurrence of three events whose visibility crossed the limits of the Real estate markets, with repercussions in the whole national financial market: [i] the concession to Brazil, by major international agencies of risk classification, of a sovereign risk classification that put it into the Investment Grade category. Therefore, international investors would have larger statutory freedom to address their investments to Brazil. [ii] the existence of margins, within regulatory limits, to increase the percentile of the institutional investors' participation in real estate assets. In Brazil, the portions destined to the investments in real estate assets, for institutional investors, are proportionally small. For instance, although the limit specified by the current regulation is of 8% of the total investment portfolio, the participation of Brazilian pension funds in real estate assets is now in 2,7% of the portfolio. [iii] the recent movement of capital openings (IPO's), mergers and acquisitions of real estate companies. This brought a new reality, in the sense that never before such a big availability of resources for investment in real estate markets was verified. Because of the income of new resources, there was a need of develop new projects in a very superior scale to which was been observed, and there was a sudden increase in the offer of new investment projects. In this context, in the end of 2008, the global financial crisis reached the country and the investments in real estate suffered strong retraction, with projects being canceled and companies that opened the capital having to seriously review the guidance previously emitted. It is already glimpsed that the dynamic balance between offer and demand for real estate products is losing temper quickly, imposing a new pattern of competitiveness in real estate markets. However, the pension funds managers already indicate that there is a need to be more aggressive in the portfolio composition, including real estate assets with more intensity. As so, if on one side the pension funds can increase the percentile of resources invested in real estate, on the other hand, an increasing of the markets competition is expected, and also an increase in the dispute for good investment opportunities. This new level of competitiveness requires, on the side of the institutional investors, a significant evolution in their investment processes, inducing an improvement in the practices of analysis and management of real estate assets investments. This implicates in a necessary evolution in the instruments until today, being therefore reasonable to suppose that new methodologies for evaluation of investments will be needed, as well as innovative instruments to support portfolio management. For that reason, as an initial step in this process, took place the present research, whose purpose was to identify which were the factors that the investors recognize as current of their decision making support systems, and try to propose adjustments in order to prevent or to mitigate risks. Therefore, it was looked for to elaborate a questionnaire to treat structural subjects on the process of real estate investment decision-making, and not of theoretical subjects on concepts of the decision theory. In order to the results went comparable to those of other studies, it was used as reference the work of Pfnuer and Armonat (Immobilienkapitalanlage institutioneller Investoren: Risikomanagement und Portfolioplanung. Arbeitspapier nº26. Universität Hamburg. 2001). In this work, the authors accomplished a wide survey with institutional investors of Germany, and the results were made available and systematized, making possible excellent conditions for the accomplishment of comparative analyses. This way, after an analysis of the documentation of the original research accomplished in Germany, the formulation began from the questionnaire to be applied in Brazil, mainly the classification of the factors that can affect the performance of real estate investments. In general terms, these factors are classified in structural characteristics of specific project (Strukturmerkmale), and in the evolution of the general conditions of the environment (Rahmenbedingungen) which affects investment projects. The questionnaire was sent through major institutional investors' associations, and a good participation in the phase-pilot was obtained. Until the present moment, the results indicate a good acceptance of the questionnaire, not being necessary significant adaptations to the Brazilian market. That facilitates the future comparative analysis to be accomplished until May of 2009. It is expected that this research will benefit both the corporate and academic community, with respect to identification of influence factors that can be used to subsidize investment politics and the development of decision support systems that incorporate the specificities of the real estate assets.
keywords Brazil, risk, portfolio, Germany, pension funds
series ERES:conference
email rogerio.santovito@poli.usp.br
content file.ppt (3,481,600 bytes)
discussion No discussions. Post discussion ...
ratings Ratings: 3
session Investment and Finance
last changed 2009/09/16 16:22
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