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Paper eres2007_164:
Ageing and Housing Demand: Dutch Cohort Evidence

id eres2007_164
authors Neuteboom, Peter; Dirk Brounen
year 2007
title Ageing and Housing Demand: Dutch Cohort Evidence
source 14th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in London, UK
summary In the Netherlands, and indeed elsewhere in Europe, homeownership (rates) and housing consumption has increased over time. On basis of repetitive cross-section analysis one can conclude that homeownership rates are lower for younger and older people, while people aged in-between are overrepresented in the homeownership sector (m.m. for housing consumption). Based on these findings, one could conclude that the ageing of Europe will lead to lower demand for owner-occupied dwellings and more generally to lower levels of housing consumption. Actually, the relation between age and homeownership/housing consumption is more complicated than that. Three issues are at stake here: age, birth cohort (generation-effect) and time (period). On forehand, one can expect housing consumption by age follows an inverted U-shape, while housing consumption and both the cohort-effect and time-effect are positively related. The way to disentangle these processes is by cohort analysis. Cohort analysis seeks to de-compose the observed trend into distinct effects associated with the life cycle, birth cohort and time. The analysis treats an outcome variable - i.e. homeownership, housing consumption - as a function of age, cohort and time. We modelled several distinctive cohort-models to assess the relation between housing consumption and age/cohort/time. Our models show that in the coming decade’s one can expect - under the assumption of no structural breaks - that the ageing of society does not necessarily leads to lower housing consumption; i.e. the negative age-effect is offset by changing attitudes over time towards housing (positive cohort and time-effects).
series ERES:conference
discussion No discussions. Post discussion ...
ratings
session Session B4: Affordability
last changed 2009/11/19 09:01
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