Risk and Return of the Clients Choice Programme for Housing Corporations
||Kramer, Bert; Gerhard Berghorst; Victor Michielse & Micha van Akkeren
||Risk and Return of the Clients Choice Programme for Housing Corporations
||14th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference in London, UK
||The Client’s Choice Programme offers tenants freedom of choice in tenure. With this programme, a housing corporation offers tenants the choice between a traditional rent contract, fixed rent or fixed rent increase contracts for a five- or ten-year period, socially bound ownership, and ownership with a buy-back option. This programme has been introduced by a Dutch housing corporation a few years ago. Currently, more and more Dutch housing corporations are implementing this programme, or are thinking about implementing it. For the landlord, the Client’s Choice Programme has the benefit of increasing cash flow, which can be used for (social) housing investments. However, there are also substantial financial risks, concerning for instance the rate of sales, the development of market values and the potential costs of having to buy back the dwellings. In this paper we present the results of a risk analysis study performed for a Dutch housing corporation that plans to introduce the Client’s Choice Programme. In this study we will look at issues like the recommended introduction speed (all dwellings at once, or gradually over a specific time span) and the probability that a tenant chooses a specific type of tenure. We analyse the impact of these issues on the development of solvency and liquidity. We use Monte Carlo simulation to establish both the expected development and the risk, measured as downside probability and Value at Risk.
Post discussion ...
||Session A2: Social Housing
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