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Paper eres2005_253:
UK Real Estate Market Forecast Variation

id eres2005_253
authors McAllister, Patrick; George Matysiak and Graeme Newell
year 2005
title UK Real Estate Market Forecast Variation
source Book of Abstracts: 2005 European Real Estate Society conference in association with the International Real Estate Society
summary Forecasts play an important role in real estate investment decisions supporting broad asset allocation and real estate fund strategy, including sector and geographic allocation. It is believed that through modelling and forecasting real estate markets improved real estate investment decisions can be made. However, uncertainty and forecast error are intrinsic elements of any forecast. Outside real estate, the topic of forecast disagreement has generated a substantial body of research focussing on sources and causes of disagreement. In this paper we look at the performance of real estate forecasters in the UK and examine the extent of variation in the forecasts. This paper looks at differences in UK quarterly forecasts using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) survey data of independent forecasters over the period 1999-2004. On average 25 real estate forecasters participate in the survey. Consensus forecasts for all participants are presented, as well as separate results for the sub-groups of real estate advisors, real estate fund managers and real estate equity brokers. Results for individual real estate forecasters are not published. However, the IPF have made available this data for the purposes of this research.
series ERES:conference
type normal paper
discussion No discussions. Post discussion ...
session Session F6
last changed 2008/11/01 09:47
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