Apartment House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence
||Holtemöller, Oliver and Rainer Schulz
||Apartment House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence
||Book of Abstracts: 2005 European Real Estate Society conference in association with the International Real Estate Society
||We study the impact of macroeconomic factors on apartment house prices. A simple version of the so-called new IS/LM model is used to analyze the interaction of macroeconomic variables and prices. It is assumed that prices follow the rational valuation formula (RVF), which states that prices correspond to the sum of discounted expected future cash flows. The model allows for time-varying discount factors, tax effects and systematic interdependence between macroeconomic factors. We construct a price-rent ratio for apartment houses in Berlin from transaction data between 1980 and 2000. It turns out that the rational valuation formula can explain the dynamics of price-rent ratios for apartment houses quite well. We then compare the stylised facts generated by the structural model with the observed empirical time series behavior.
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