Econometric analysis and forecast of the real estate cost in the capital of Belarus - Minsk
||Econometric analysis and forecast of the real estate cost in the capital of Belarus - Minsk
||10th European Real Estate Society Conference (10-13 June 2003) Helsinki, Finland
||The real estate market of Belarus historically is still very young. The beginning of its development can be dated by middle of 1992, when together with process of privatization in Minsk the legal bargains on sale of flats, later - other real estate have appeared. Thus, Belarusian real estate market, as well as the conference of ERES celebrates the 10 anniversaries. In other towns of Belarus the start of the real estate market has taken place together with the beginning of economics liberalization - in 1992, 1993 and later. For the last 10 years it has done unprecedented way of a becoming and development. From first steps of the real estate market the most far-seeing practices - realtors and the specialists of scientific organizations have began to analyze the legitimacies and tendencies of its development. However till now it is not deeply researched in reality and there is no developed and accepted methodology of its analysis and forecasting. It is known the main regularity of the developed markets: cycle variations of activity and prices together with economical, investment and other cycles; connection between the real estate market and other markets (currency, share); formation of the prices on the basis of equilibrium of a supply and demand and ctr. The researches have shown that all these of regularity are upset and flow by another way for the developing real estate markets in conditions of transition economies. The analysis of the real estate market of Minsk for 10 years of its existence is maid. The features and regularity of its development are detected. With usage of econometric methods the forecast of the real estate market for 2003 is maid. The concept of creation of the real estate market monitoring is offered. In Europe it is offered to create Center of Real Estate Markets Monitoring that will be useful for financial organizations and for experts to analyze development of real estate markets in transition and market economy. The Center could be organized with a help of ERES.
||Econometric analysis; forecast; real estate market; housing market; commercial real estate; monitoring
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||Session 11, Modelling & forecasting – methods
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