The Accuracy of Property Forecasting in the UK
||Newell, Graeme; Brown Stephen; McAllister Patrick
||The Accuracy of Property Forecasting in the UK
||10th European Real Estate Society Conference (10-13 June 2003) Helsinki, Finland
||Property forecasting is an important component within a property investment strategy. While all forecasting is subject to some degree of uncertainty, a high degree of sophistication has been developed over recent years, with a range of quantitative and qualitative procedures now used in property forecasting. In the UK, the Investment Property Forum (IPF) has conducted a quarterly survey amongst independent property forecasters since 1998. These surveys collect information on future rental growth, capital growth and total returns from a range of UK property forecasters, including property advisors, fund managers and equity brokers. The purpose of this paper is to utilise these IPF surveys to compare these property forecasts with actual property performance to assess the accuracy of property forecasting in the UK over 1998-2002. In particular, the accuracy of this property forecasting will be benchmarked against a number of alternative property forecasting strategies to assess the ěadded-valueî of property forecasting in the UK.
||Property forecasting; IPF survey of independent forecasts; predicted versus actual performance; accuracy; IPD
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||Session 6, Modelling & forecasting – yields
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