The stock-flow model for Sweden and the United Kindom. Econometric Analysis for the period 1970-1998
||Barot, Bharat; Yang Zan
||The stock-flow model for Sweden and the United Kindom. Econometric Analysis for the period 1970-1998
||10th European Real Estate Society Conference (10-13 June 2003) Helsinki, Finland
||We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970-1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). In order to facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately similar type of exogenous variables. The long run income elasticity for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0 respectively. The long runs semi-elasticity for interest rates is 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 12% and 23% while on the supply side is 6% and 48% for Sweden respectively the UK. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also a feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger causes financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for Sweden and the UK. In both countries Tobinís q Granger cause housing investment. Generally the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.
||House prices; Housing investment; Tobin’s q; Error Correction; Cointegration; Long run; elasticity; Granger- causality; forecasting ability
Post discussion ...
||Session 3, Real Estate Modelling
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